Science-based Reopening

Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham - screenshot

While watching Governor Lujan-Grisham’s two-hour press conference discussing science-based efforts to reopen New Mexico safely, I felt this weird dissonance.

On one screen, the administration discussed opening New Mexico without a disastrous increase in COVID-19 cases, by working carefully to balance science, economics, and human nature. They were working out details most of us would miss. 

 

On another screen, FB friends and strangers insisted that the pandemic is grossly exaggerated, even that unspecified elites have ginned this up to control us better. I don’t agree, but hope to talk to those folks further. (Meanwhile the comment-thread during the Governor’s presser was pretty wild. See my blog for samples.)

I keep trying to tell folks in that Facebook world what I see and hear in the reporting world. Friends say, “Why bother? They’re the same folks who deny climate-change.” Three reasons: since I don’t know everything, I might learn something; I too have held highly unpopular views most folks maligned; and if I’m right about this pandemic, COVID-19-deniers who spurn masks could endanger someone they care about. So communication matters. 

 

Dr. David Scrase - Human Svs. Sec.

What I wanted the FB folks to see in the Governor, Kathleen Kunkel, and Dr. David Scrase (New Mexico’s Fauci) is their seriousness and concern; their reliance on evidence; and their willingness to admit what they don’t know. They could be wrong; but they’re damn sure trying, as reasonably as possible, to get it right.

They understand everyone’s frustration, and the very real and serious pain a busted economy causes.

There’s just something about the COVID-deniers I don’t quite get.

I know everything has to be partisan now, and we must root for our team with absolute loyalty. We’re all at least somewhat guilty of that. I understand that people don’t like to be told what to do. My whole life has been a fight against being told what to do or think. I gather that Donald Trump’s cavalier dismissal of anything scientific appeals to some. (I don’t understand that.) 

 

This virus is a serious problem, more communicable than the flu but far less than measles was before vaccines. We keep learning more about how one gets infected. Early projections weren’t lies, or tricks to control us better, but (a) involved a new virus few scientists had encountered and (b) assumed we wouldn’t take such extreme protective measures. 

 

Cloth masks, though imperfect, can help keep me from spreading the virus if I get infected. I might not know I was infected until too late, because I’d actually be most dangerous during the last few days before symptoms appear. Wearing the mask minimizes the odds I’d spread the virus, and the more people who don’t infect others, the better chance that your 90-year-old grandfather – and our economy – will survive. (New York studies show that 80% of people wearing masks cut the daily death toll considerably.)

The enemy is this virus (which isn’t alive), not Michelle or Donald. As with World War II’s rationing, shortages, and draft, it’s time to suck it up and try to do the right thing for our community and country. 

 

I get that when we’re bickering about Donald and Joe, a flashy Facebook meme that trashes “the enemy” is exciting, and we reach for “Share”; but this virus warrants a more thoughtful approach, like critically reading facts (not someone’s ideological spin) with an open mind. 

Sorry to ruin the party, but someone’s life might depend on you.

                                              – 30 --

[The column above appeared this morning, Sunday, 17 May 2020, in the Las Cruces Sun-News, as well as on the newspaper's website (sub nom A Tightrope of Science, Economics, and Human Nature) and on KRWG's website, sub nom Science, Not Politics, Must Drive Covid-19 Policy.  A radio-commentary based on it will air during the week both on KRWG and on KTAL, 101.5 FM -- streaming at www.lccommunityradio.org. The commentary will also be available on-demand on KRWG's website.]

[Of course, it's not possible to keep politics entirely out of discussions of coronavirus.  For one thing, given the testimony and other information about  Mr. Trump's sluggish response to the pandemic, it's understandable that Trump minions would wish to minimize the problem he was ignoring and Trump antagonists would tend to stress its importance.  However, in the real world there are some facts. For example, we know how pre-symptomatic people can spread the disease, we know the "R-naught" of COVID-19 (fortunately smaller than the one for measles, say) and that the kinds of conduct outlined in the public health order can keep the spread rate significantly lower.  However, all the science is important information that decision-makers need to factor in with economic, psychological, societal, political, and other sorts of information in trying to chart (and continually re-chart based on experience and new information) our best course.]

[A useful explanation of the science is one by Erin Brundage, Ph.D., who points out in KNOW THE RISKS":
“Based on infectious dose studies with MERS and SARS, some estimate that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 viral particles are needed for an infection to take hold. Please note, this still needs to be determined experimentally, but [using that number to demonstrate the principle:] Infection could occur, through 1000 viral particles you receive in one breath or from one eye-rub, or 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths, or 10 viral particles with 100 breaths.
A breath: A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled.
A Cough: A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds.
A Sneeze: A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).
If a person is infected, the droplets in a single cough or sneeze may contain as many as 200,000,000 (two hundred million) virus particles which can all be dispersed into the environment around them.]

[This morning I noticed a Washington Post article on how some epidemilogists approach the question of maximixing safety when going out more during these times. Though they said they'd try to stay in until cases decline in their communities, they offered some guidance for folks going out.  Most of those, most of us would already contemplate; but they had a couple I'd not have thought to mention.  They say, in part:  

In general, aside from how necessary the excursion is, they’ll consider: will they be indoors or outdoors; can they stay six feet from others; and how long will the outing be? Outdoors and shorter outings are safer. “I won’t linger in places,” one said. At businesses, they’ll note whether all staff members are wearing masks, employees are observing the six-foot principle, whether or not there’s hand sanitizer or some other easy way to clean/disinfect hands, and are there few enough customers that everyone can keep the six-foot distance. They’ll also carry hand-sanitizer, and use it before and after being in public spaces, focus on not touching their faces, use the bathroom before leaving home to avoid using public restrooms, and carry water to avoid using drinking fountains.]

[I'd intended to include some of the comments on the thread that kept moving up the screen to the right of the video throughout the Governor's press conference; but that's too arduous a task for such a beautiful Sunday morning!  I'll post it soon.  However, several took the Governor to task for not wearing a mask throughout her talk.   However, she did have one, and was wearing it at the start (and, later, even showed folks how to make one from a bandanna), she quite naturally took it off to speak into a microphone, and was quite safe because the cabinet members to her right and left were at least about 20 feet away.]

Photographs  © 2020 Peter Goodman