Taking a Deep Breath

If some typographical symbol meant, “taking a deep breath,” I’d start this column with it.

We just had a major election. Before jumping into state/local issues, let’s contemplate that.

We’re still deeply and acrimoniously divided. Gridlock and Disinformation will still characterize Congress and the Internet, respectively. (And Fox Gnus.) Mr. Trump still proposes to stay out of jail by running again for President. Mr. Putin still proposes to nuke someone if we don’t let him have his way.

But this was an amazing week: for the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a sitting president’s party in his first mid-term lost few House seats and perhaps no Senators. (Truman and Clinton each lost 54 House and 10 Senate seats, Obama 63/6.)

What overcame history, Biden’s poor polling, and high inflation? Decent folks’ revulsion at Trump’s lawlessness and disregard for democracy? Seeing how pathetic his chosen senatorial candidates were? This election may prevent a second Trump presidency; but “Ron DeSanctimonious” isn’t Lincoln.

We may not know who controls the U.S. Senate until Georgia’s candidates meet in a runoff December 6. (Neither Raphael Warnock (49.6%) nor Herschel Walker (48.3%) exceeded 50% of the vote.)

I’d bet on Warnock. He led this time. Anti-Trump revulsion could hurt Trump’s hand-picked running back, who won’t have Brian Kemp blocking for him. Governor Kemp led the Republican ticket, beating Stacey Abrams, but some Kemp voters didn’t vote for Walker. Decent Republicans who came out to vote for Kemp and other Republicans might stay home December 6. Fundamentalist “pro-life” folks might reflect on the fact that Warnock is a respected pastor, while Walker has funded abortions. Even if Walker gets ¾ of the voters who preferred Libertarian Chase Oliver (hardly a given, since Oliver’s a gay ex-Dem!), the excitement for Warnock and the mixed feelings about Walker should give Warnock the prize, despite the runoff’s significance. (Georgia Dems won both 2020 runoffs.)

Meanwhile, congratulations to Gabe Vasquez! But Wednesday morning, eyeballing that 50%-50% Vasquez-Herrell split, I contemplated our system. However I feel about the candidates (I’ve liked and respected Gabe for many years; Yvette, whom I interviewed in 2018, seemed a pleasant person, but was too convinced that Donald Trump was good for the country), it seems sad that after all the work and passion (and dollars) result in a close call, one candidate is totally out in the cold.

A shout out to Gabe. DON’T let the national party lead you by the nose. Its support helped; but your sweat and eloquence won this. Take their advice as well-intended, but it ain’t written on no tablet from the mountain.

Shout outs to Shannon Reynolds and Suzie Kimble. Reynolds will continue on our county commission. Kimble will not join it. If our candidate forum had been a job interview, I’d have hired Mr. Reynolds; but I’d have kept Ms. Kimble’s resume for the next opening. They campaigned cordially, collegially, cooperatively, and reasonably, more interested in the business of governing than in taking ideological potshots at each other. Good riddance to Mr. Ronchetti, Dr. Oz, and a host of ambitious phonies. And congrats to Michele Lujan-Grisham and Raul Torrez; but please don’t trip over the constitution in your haste to jail people before trying them.

I hope now we relax for awhile, laugh more, enjoy our wonderful lives, and take time for facts regarding political matters.  I won't hold my breath, though.

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[The above column appeared Sunday, 13 November 2022, in the Las Cruces Sun-News, as well as on the newspaper's website (or, at least, it will be) and KRWG's website. A related radio commentary will air during the week on KRWG (90.7 FM) and on KTAL (101.5 FM / http://www.lccommunityradio.org/) and be available on both stations’ websites.]

[By the way, I’ll be doing a book-signing at Coas Books Saturday, 19 November, of my novel, The Moonlit Path. That’s 10 a.m. to noon, at 317 North Main Street. That’ll be a great chance to say hello, take a quick look at the book, and buy a copy if the spirit moves you.]

[I guess some of what I’ve been writing accords with what’s going on. More Republicans are particularly articulating their disenchantment with Mr. Trump. Bernie Sanders expressed a dichotomy pretty well in pointing out that while a second Trump Presidency (or even presidential campaign) would be disastrous for the nation, it would likely undermine national Republicans’ efforts to get elected. Trump should be toast; but, remember, folks thought that as the Republican primaries started in 2016, What got Trump through was that although most Republicans thought him a clown, and some saw him as a dangerous clown, the seven dwarfs (Cruz, Rubio, et al. – how many of their names can you recall now?) each let personal ambition blind him (or her) to the importance of unifying to prevent Mr. Trump from marching toward the nomination by “winning” primaries with 38% of the vote. This time, seems like others might shut up and let DeSantis run; but I’m not sure. DeSantis is no bargain. Some, like Pence have reasons to run against Trump or DeSantis. Others, like Hawley and perhaps even Cruz, may nourish illusions that they could win the 2024 nomination and 2024 election.]

[To speak plainly: I think Trump will announce a run; but he will stop short of mounting a serious campaign, but not because of Republican opposition. An extraneous force, possibly a criminal trial or conviction, possibly mental illness so glaring it can’t be annoyed, perhaps even one of the other debilitating things that often happen to fa, out-of-shape septuagenarians who don’t take care of themselves. Not saying I wish anything on him; but it’ll be an interesting couple of years.]

[Now, with Arizona and Nevada called for Democrats, the Georgia runoff will merely decide whether the Democrats control the Senate 51-49 or continue at 50-50, controlling the Senate because Vice-President Kamala Harris’s vote breaks ties. That should decrease total turnout. I’d guess it feels more important to Democrats than to Republicans, partly because of the mixed feelings Republicans have about Walker. There are large donors who are pretty embarrassed by his inexperience and the scandals he’s brought them, and if they’re not buying control of the Senate, why bother? Too, the belated rush to see and state that Donald Trump is bringing the party down by inserting losers into the Republican lineup won’t help people motivate themselves to traipse back to the polls for Herschel. Too, an astute African-American journalist points out that Blacks in Georgia don’t much care for Herschel – not because he’s allied with folks whose policies favor the rich, or with known racists, but because Walker (self-proclaimed “not that smart”) so clearly fits white folks’ old stereotype of people of color: plenty of brawn, no real intelligence, and an inexhaustible supply of prevarications.) Meanwhile, Defendants, inspired by gaining a seat Tuesday instead of losing two or three, won’t feel quite as significant a dwindling of energy. If I were betting on Warnock as on the San Francisco 49ers, I’ll bet we’d find Las Vegas had shifted the odds by now. [or moved the point-spread from Warnock -1 to giving Walked 3 or 4 points, as if the Chargers’ quarterback had tested positive Friday for COVID] Unless Dem overconfidence or deep love for Walker’s football accomplishments hurts the Dems; but likely we’ll see Barack Obama revisiting the state right after Thanksgiving.)